Thursday, April 28, 2011

Keynes Vs Hayek Round 2

This is an absolute must watch for anyone confused over top down versus bottom up (or Keynes vs Hayek).

Favourite lines from my side (Mr Hayek):
"Wow, one data point and you're jumping for joy"

"Real growth means production, what people demand, that's entrepreneurship not your central plan"

"The question I ponder is who plans for whome. Do you plan for yourself or leave it to you, I want plans by the many not by the few"


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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Rebalancing the economy

Just wanted to quickly share this little tidbit that the Spectator pointed out from CitiBank showing how the government really is managing to rebalance the economy towards exports and private sector investment. Whilst the two Eds (Ball and Milliband), and of course Gordon Brown believe that the only way out of a recession is public sector spending Osborne and Team and proving that it doesn't have to be the case.


Update:
The ONS has just released the Q1 GDP growth figures (0.5% growth), however the underlying figures show that the rebalancing of the economy is working. Manufacturing up 1.1%, Services up 0.9% and production up 0.4%.

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Tuesday, April 19, 2011

AV Sports Day

It's been a while but with the AV campaign hotting up I expect to be blogging a bit more in the coming 2 weeks or so.

The posts might even be more than just posting a new No to AV ad, like this one:

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Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Quote of the day

Eric Pickles yesterday when asked if he thought it was bizzare that Ed Milliband had compared his party's struggle to that of apartheid:

"Well, I suppose there comes an occasion, you turn up, there's a lot of people there-and you just start to talk. These things happen, and we should be in a forgiving mood. I mean, anybody can compare themselves to Martin Luther King."



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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Taking on Whitehall

There have been a number of posts and articles of late claiming that Cameron was wrong to identify the Civil Service as an enemy of Enterprise in his speech to Spring Forum in Cardiff. It seems that no less that the head honcho of the Civil Service, Sir Gus O’Donnell has been tasked with telling No. 10 to “Cool-it”, in their anti civil service rhetoric.

The argument from pretty much every journalist doesn’t seem to have been that the Civil Service isn’t an Enemy of Enterprise but that it’s wrong to pull them up on it. You see you need the Civil Service to support you in putting through your reforms, so you shouldn’t upset them by telling them they’re not doing a good enough job.

Rubbish, this kind of thinking is exactly why they are the enemies of enterprise. No government has ever had the guts to take them on for fear of them holding up everything else, but if we are to fundamentally reform our public services and rebalance our economy then we have to. The media should be cheering the Prime Minister for having the strength to take on a powerful lobby and set of vested interests, or are they too worried about losing the Civil Service’s support and access, to tackle them too.

Update: As I wrote this James Forsyth at the Spectator posted a piece on Coffee House pointing out that even former Labour government insiders and minister agree that the Civil Service get in the way and have power without accountability, mainly because they can’t be sacked. In opposition I believe that Francis Maude had plans to put permanent secretaries on short term contracts to resolve this, but I understand this has met Civil Service resistance (anyone really surprised by that) and been quietly dropped, along with other proposed Civil Service reforms.

Bootnote: I think we can guess that the leaked budget that Balls held up in the Commons yesterday was from a disgruntled Civil Servant who didn't like the idea of being pulled up on his performance by the government.

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Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Our debt interest in perspective

As regular readers know I love a good visualisation, and CCHQ have just come up with a great one showing just how much we spend as a government every day. Unsurprisingly at present our daily debt interest dwarfs anything else, including schools and defence.

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Why Combine Income Tax and NI?

At the beginning of last week the Office for Tax Simplification (another new body, with an un-sexy name, but an important job), released its interim report into how to simplify the tax system. The coverage at the time was minimal (what with Libya imploding and Japan’s nuclear reactor’s exploding it’s hardly surprising), but since then and with the budget looming the media has suddenly started to pick-up on their most radical proposal, Scrapping National insurance in favour of a tax which combines National Insurance and income tax into one.

Why is this a good idea? Well firstly national insurance is quite complicated and calculating income tax deductions and national insurance deductions and completing the correct returns for the PAYE system is a time consuming process for business (especially smaller ones). In fact I am almost certain that there is research out there somewhere which shows that being responsible for the tax affairs of employees is one of the things that stops sole traders and one man band businesses from expanding into employers.

Secondly National Insurance is a tax that has had its day. It’s designed to act as an insurance payment, you pay in and get access to benefits and the NHS if you need them, if you don’t then your payments are paying for someone else to get them. Except you also get access to benefits and the NHS if you’ve never paid any National Insurance, because as a society we also look after the poorest and those that can’t work.

At present National Insurance raises £98.5bn a year against an annual welfare bill of £180bn and an annual bill for the NHS of £xxbn. In reality taxation from NI isn’t ring-fenced to pay for benefits and the NHS and if it was it wouldn’t be anywhere near enough anyway. It’s all just money for government coffers, and is just another form of tax on income with complicated rules and rates.

Removing National Insurance actually goes hand in hand with the benefit reforms which Ian Duncan Smith is currently pushing through. His suggestion that everyone will be entitled to a flat rate £140 a week pension removes not just the link to NI contributions over time, but also the complicated mechanism for NI top-ups, that make sure that someone isn’t left in poverty in their old age. So combining NI and income tax not only simplifies things on the employee side, but could also help reduce the huge bureaucracy which is required to administer our benefits system.

Finally of course if we do this then it’s more difficult for a future Labour government to put up taxes by stealth by increasing NI, because it’s all in one single payment. In reality at present the 20% tax rate, including NI is actually 32%, and the 40% rate is actually 52%. So not only would it be more difficult to put up taxes when we’re in opposition, but it’s also easier to convince people that they should be reduced when we’re in government.

So really it’s a win-win all round and something of a no brainer. My prediction is that the Chancellor will announce some kind of commitment to set-up a commission or inquiry into how this can be done in the budget, although who knows he may go further.

Bootnote: This was originally written last week and I've only just got around to looking up the tax income figures.

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