Tuesday, July 6, 2010

You Gov AV polling

YouGov have been doing some polling on the AV referendum and the results are very interesting. Not enough time to do my own analysis so here it is straight from YouGov.

All very positive from our point of view however you look at it.

YouGov has conducted research for Channel 4 and The Sun on the Alternative Vote referendum. The main points from the latest results are as follows:
1) The principle of having a referendum on AV is popular with the support of 69% of the public.
2) Latest voting intentions in the AV referendum are 45% in support of AV, 32% in support of FPTP. 6% would not vote and 17% don't know how they would vote.
3) However, support for AV is soft. We experimented by presenting people with six arguments in favour of AV, and six arguments against AV and then asking how they would vote in a referendum. This resulted in a significant drop in support for AV to 33% and a corresponding increase in don't knows, leaving referendum voting intention neck and neck.
4) The effect of the Alternative Vote, were it to be introduced, would not necessarily damage the Conservative party. Lib Dem voters are now more likely to give their second preferences to the Conservative party, and Labour voters are less likely to give their second preferences to the Liberal Democrats.

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1 comment:

  1. Re point 4:
    Election 2010 Lib Dem splits:
    Lab 42% Con 27% Others 17%
    YouGov poll Lib Dem splits
    Lab 42% Con 27% Others 14%

    Election 2010 Lab splits:
    Lib Dem 64% Con 6% Others 15%
    YouGov poll Lab splits
    Lib Dem 64% Con 6% Others 13%