You Gov AV polling

YouGov have been doing some polling on the AV referendum and the results are very interesting. Not enough time to do my own analysis so here it is straight from YouGov.

All very positive from our point of view however you look at it.

YouGov has conducted research for Channel 4 and The Sun on the Alternative Vote referendum. The main points from the latest results are as follows:

1) The principle of having a referendum on AV is popular with the support of 69% of the public.

2) Latest voting intentions in the AV referendum are 45% in support of AV, 32% in support of FPTP. 6% would not vote and 17% don't know how they would vote.

3) However, support for AV is soft. We experimented by presenting people with six arguments in favour of AV, and six arguments against AV and then asking how they would vote in a referendum. This resulted in a significant drop in support for AV to 33% and a corresponding increase in don't knows, leaving referendum voting intention neck and neck.

4) The effect of the Alternative Vote, were it to be introduced, would not necessarily damage the Conservative party. Lib Dem voters are now more likely to give their second preferences to the Conservative party, and Labour voters are less likely to give their second preferences to the Liberal Democrats.

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The only local candidate...

A lot of what has been written, by both the mainstream media and the blogosphere, about the Stratford-on-Avon PPC selection is that CCHQ enforced a list of non local candidates on the association. Statements such as this from Stratford Online News are typical:

"Philip Seccombe, a chartered surveyor, Stratford district councillor and chairman of the local Conservative association, was the solitary local candidate."

Phillip Seccombe was the only local candidate of a short-list of six, there is no avoiding that, but he was the only local candidate for a very good reason. He is, to my knowledge, the only person living within the constituency who is on the approved candidates list. That is, he is the only local person who decided they wanted to become a member of parliament (not just, in an opportunistic fashion when their local seat was available), put them name forward, and then went through the process to be vetted by the Conservative Party and deemed capable and worthy of becoming a Member of Parliament for the party.

To suggest that CCHQ some how ignored five other local candidates is not just wrong but misleading. There were no other local candidates that they could have chosen from, the closest on the list, and someone who was on it, was  probably Lucy Allen who grew up on the family farm which is near Shipston, and only 12.9 miles from Stratford Town. I didn't see any of the press referring to her as a locally born girl though, after all, that just didn't fit the established narrative.

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Stratford Upon Avon Shortlist

ConservativeHome has got the jump on everyone it seems (I am just trying to confirm this through the association) and has posted the Shortlist for the forthcoming selection of a new PPC for Stratford Upon Avon. Shamelessly lifted directly from them is the list below (with links to their sites / blogs that I've found so far)

Lucy Allan 

Former - Workplace Law Ltd, Freelance Employment Law Adviser

Current - Self-employed employment law adviser

Councillor in Wandsworth since 2006

Victoria Atkins

Current - Criminal Barrister

Lots of political experience been involved in four General Elections

Father Sir Robert Atkins MEP

Alice Barnard

Former - Account Director and shareholder, Building on Business 

Current - Regional Director of the Eastern Region, Countryside Alliance

Joined in 2007

Georgina Butler 

Former - British Consul Tangier

Philip Seccombe 

Former - Chestertons - Partner in London and Birmingham

Current - Seccombes, Chartered Surveyors, Founder and Senior Partner

Chairman of Stratford-on-Avon Association

Councillor on Stratford-on-Avon Council since 2002

Nadhim Zahawi

Former - European Marketing Director, Smith and Brooks Ltd

Current - Co-founder and CEO of YouGov

PPC - Erith and Thamesmead 1997

Councillor in Wandsworth 1994 - 2006

Come 19th of February one of these will be the new Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Stratford Upon Avon.

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Replacing John Maples - The Procedure

ConservativeHome has revealed the shortlisting process that CCHQ will be using to provide the Stratford Upon Avon Conservative Association with a shortlist of candidates to select from.

Eric Pickles, Party Chairman will be given a primary role within it, with no role at all for outgoing local MP John Maples.

The process according to ConservativeHome will be as follows:

• Any candidate on the candidates’ list who wishes to express an interest in the seat will be invited to do so in an email to Gareth Fox, of the Candidates’ Department at CCHQ.
• Eric Pickles will conduct an initial sift;
• A panel of Eric Pickles, Patrick McLoughlin, who is the opposition Chief Whip, and Jeremy Middleton, Chairman of the National Conservative Convention, will draw up the final shortlist for the association;
• The shortlist will be passed to the association for them to select the candidate.

There’s no word from ConservativeHome on how long the shortlist will be, but I have heard from my sources that the rules stipulate that it must be a shortlist of at least 3, and that in reality the list is expected to be larger than that.

I also know that there’s a meeting at Trinity Street (Stratford Conservative HQ) this morning and I’m sure the local selection process from the shortlist will be discussed. As soon as I know more on what we’ll be doing locally I’ll update.

Related Posts:
Replacing John Maples - A thought
Replacing John Maples - it Continues
John Maples - The Morning After

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