The ONS have released their prelimary GDP figures showing that GDP in the last quarter was up by 0.1%, mainly according to them due to increased output in distribution, hotels, restaurants and other services. In total output of the service industries increased by 0.1% and production industries by 0.1%, implying GDP decreases in other areas.
In all GDP on the year decreased by 3.2% between 2008 Q4 and 2009Q4.
Update: Further reading of the ONS release says that there were small decreases in business services and finance whilst construction, transport, storage and communication were flat over the quarter. Government and other services increase by 0.2%, mainly due to health spending.
Perhaps most worrying for Gordon Brown is that this is only an estimate based on 40% of data. The last estimates were I seem to recall revised down from 0.2% contraction to a 0.4% contraction, if we saw the same kind of revision then we'd actually still be in a recession.
Showing posts with label economic growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic growth. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
End of the Recession?
All the media outlets are reporting that the ONS is expected to tell us that we are out of the recession this quarter. Of course they were expected to tell us that at the end of last quarter which left a lot of bloggers, commentors nad newspaper editors looking quite red faced when the real stat of a 0.2% contraction came through.
Will that happen today? With Christmas included in the figures I doubt it, but just like with unemployment figures, Christmas is a temporary blip, and with all the sales having happened in December and January and consumers tightening their belts in January (not to mention tax being due for the self employed) are we likely to double dip?
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